- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.10-33.165 this morning supportive level at 33.10 resistance level at 33.30
- SET Index: 1,138.9 (+0.9%), 16 Apr 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 5,275.7 (-2.3%), 16 Apr 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.953 (-3.19 bps), 16 Apr 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.29 (-6.0 bps), 16 Apr 2025
- US retail sales jump by most in two years on car-buying rush
- Powell dashed traders’ expectations for a rate cut
- China’s economic growth beats forecasts ahead of tariff impact
- China open to talks if US shows respect, names negotiator
- UK inflation eases ahead of April’s surge in household bills
- US Dollar retreats further on trade war woes
US retail sales jump by most in two years on car-buying rush
Retail sales in March slightly beat expectations, rising 1.4% vs. 1.3% forecast, driven largely by a 5.3% jump in auto sales ahead of new tariffs. Ex-auto sales rose 0.5%, and core retail sales (ex-gas and autos) held at 0.8%. Retail control grew just 0.4%, missing the 0.6% estimate.
Powell dashed traders’ expectations for a rate cut
Fed Chair Powell stuck to a cautious, wait-and-see approach on policy, despite Governor Waller’s call for faster rate cuts in response to Trump’s tariffs. Powell warned the Fed may face conflicting goals—balancing inflation and employment—and will consider timing and distance from each target if needed.
China’s economic growth beats forecasts ahead of tariff impact
China’s economy outperformed expectations in early 2025, boosted by consumer subsidies and a surge in exports ahead of new tariffs. GDP grew 5.4% in the first quarter, surpassing the 5.2% forecast. Strong March data for both production and consumption added to the momentum, though ongoing trade tensions with Donald Trump are clouding the outlook and prompting calls for more stimulus.
China open to talks if US shows respect, names negotiator
China wants the U.S. to take several steps before resuming trade talks, including showing more respect, easing criticism from officials, adopting a consistent stance, addressing concerns over sanctions and Taiwan, and appointing a trusted negotiator backed by Trump.
UK inflation eases ahead of April’s surge in household bills
UK inflation eased for the second month in a row, offering some relief to households ahead of a major rise in bills in April. CPI rose 2.6% in the year to March, down from 2.8% in February and the lowest since December. This was below forecasts from both economists and the Bank of England. The slowdown was mainly due to lower prices for computer games, cheaper fuel, and stable food costs. Services inflation also dropped to 4.7%, below the Bank’s 4.9% estimate.
US Dollar retreats further on trade war woes
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.953, -3.19 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.949, -3.43 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.29, -6.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.33, moving in a range of 33.10 – 33.165 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.10 – 33.30 today. The US dollar weakened, with the index dipping below 100 amid US-China trade tensions and mixed economic data. Fed Chair Powell’s cautious stance offset recent optimism from Waller’s dovish comments on potential rate cuts. The euro gained on dollar weakness, briefly rising above 1.1400, as focus shifts to the upcoming ECB meeting, where a 25bps rate cut is widely anticipated. The Japanese yen gained as USD/JPY fell below 142.00, driven by a weaker dollar, lower US yields, and risk-off sentiment.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
